The state of adult social care in England, 2026: steadier on the surface, tighter underneath

On the headline numbers, adult social care in England looks steadier than at any point since the pandemic. Vacancies are at a ten-year low and the workforce is still growing. One layer down, the picture changes. Growth is slowing, the recruitment route that filled the gap has closed, councils are still overspending, and the hospital discharge backlog is getting worse.

For providers and investors, 2026 is a year to read the data carefully rather than the headlines. Here are the figures that matter most, and what they mean.

The workforce: better today, harder tomorrow

Skills for Care’s latest estimates put filled posts at 1.59 million in 2025/26, up 22,000 (1.4%) on the year. That is the slowest growth in four years, against a peak of 4.9% in 2023/24. The vacancy rate fell to 6.2%, or around 96,000 vacant posts on an average day, the lowest since 2015/16. Turnover in the independent sector eased to 23.6%.

How that improvement happened matters. International recruitment did much of the work. Since 2022/23, around 255,000 people arrived from abroad to take direct care roles in the independent sector. After the April 2024 restrictions and the closure of the Health and Care Worker visa to overseas care worker applicants in July 2025, arrivals fell from 105,000 in 2023/24 to 30,000 in 2025/26. Only around 1,500 of last year’s recruits came through the care visa itself. The rest came via dependant, family and student routes.

At the same time, the domestic workforce is shrinking. Posts filled by British nationals fell by 40,000 in 2025/26 and by 130,000 since 2020/21. British workers now fill 67.5% of posts, compared with 84.5% five years ago. Skills for Care estimates the sector will need 410,000 more posts by 2040 just to keep pace with the growing over-65 population.

What this means: today’s low vacancy rate is partly borrowed. It reflects a recruitment pipeline that has now closed and a cooler wider jobs market, with the UK vacancy rate at 2.2%. Transitional rules allow in-country applications from people already working in care until July 2028. After that, another lever goes. Workforce plans built on 2025/26 conditions are likely to prove optimistic.

The pressure is also uneven. The domiciliary care vacancy rate is 9.1%, more than double the rate in care homes with nursing (3.9%) and without nursing (3.8%). Home care is where the system most needs capacity, and it is where staff are hardest to find.

Demand: a busy front door, a narrow one

The Department of Health and Social Care’s activity report for 2024/25 records 2.02 million requests for support from people new to social care, made by 1.39 million individuals. Of those requests, 71% led to no further action and 6% led to long-term support. At the end of March 2025, 672,000 people were receiving long-term support. ADASS’s 2026 Spring Survey reports that more than 400,000 people are waiting for an assessment, care and support, a direct payment or a review.

These figures come from a new client-level data collection and should not be compared with older returns. No further action can include advice and signposting. Even so, the shape is clear: a high volume of contact and a narrow route into funded long-term care.

What this means: need that councils do not meet does not disappear. It moves to unpaid carers, to people paying for themselves, or to hospitals. Providers should expect more self-funded and privately arranged demand, and more complex needs by the time council-funded people arrive.

Money: rising costs, persistent overspends

Councils’ gross current spending on adult social care reached £29.4 billion in 2024/25, up £2.3 billion (9%) in cash terms. The average weekly cost of the residential or nursing care they fund rose 7% to £1,185.55. Even so, ADASS reports a £715 million overspend on adult social care budgets in 2025/26. Three quarters of directors say more people are presenting who are, or would previously have been, eligible for NHS Continuing Healthcare.

The gap between what councils and private payers are charged remains wide. LaingBuisson estimates that in 2024/25 councils paid an average of £908 a week for residential care, against £1,278 for private payers, a difference of £370 or about 41%. For nursing care the figures were £1,225 and £1,594, about 30% more. Private pay now accounts for £14.1 billion, or 55% of the independent residential care market, in 2025/26.

What this means: self-funders are, in effect, subsidising council placements. Care home economics therefore depend heavily on payer mix and local property wealth. A home with a strong private base can absorb low council rates. A home reliant on council placements in a less affluent area often cannot. For investors, payer mix is the most important variable in a care home’s resilience, and any reform that narrows the gap would test business models that rely on it.

Hospital discharge: the bottleneck that is not shifting

NHS England’s daily discharge data shows that on an average day in September 2026, around 13,600 patients who no longer met the criteria to reside were still in hospital. That is about 58% of those ready to leave each day, and up from around 12,800 in September 2025. The September figure has now risen for three years in a row.

Not every delay is about social care. Hospital processes, transport and family decisions all play a part. But a shortage of home care and care home places is a recurring cause, and the trend is going the wrong way.

What this means: providers that can accept discharges quickly, particularly for people with complex needs, are offering something the NHS is short of. That is a commercial opportunity. It is also a risk, because discharge funding is often short term and tied to winter pressures.

What to watch next

The Care Quality Commission’s State of Care report for 2025/26 is due this autumn and will add a quality view to these capacity and funding figures. Skills for Care’s fuller annual report, published this month, covers pay and qualifications. Both matter, because commissioners and families increasingly choose on evidence of quality, not just availability.

For providers, the practical response is straightforward. Plan workforce around domestic supply and treat retention as the main recruitment strategy. Know your payer mix, and your local council’s fee trajectory, in detail. Be clear about whether discharge work is core business or opportunistic. And gather evidence of quality from the people who use your services and their families. Minshall Group supports providers with strategy and data work of this kind, and our Straight Talking product helps organisations hear directly from patients and families.